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16.09.2007
This is one of the startling discoveries in a wide-ranging survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan San Francisco think tank.
In an endeavor that gives new meaning to the term phone sex, researchers spent two weeks last month calling about 2,500 people around California, asking them about things such as contraceptives, abortion, teen pregnancy, morning-after pills – and even politics.
Among the findings:
-- A majority of state residents, 78 percent, endorse sex education programs that also teach children how to get and use contraceptives, and think the federal government should pay for the instruction. The institute notes, however, that abstinence-only programs are in vogue with the Bush administration.
-- Fifty-three percent mistakenly see immigration from abroad as the biggest cause of the state's population growth, even though births to residents are mainly responsible for the increase – something only 12 percent of respondents realize.
-- Sixty percent say U.S. Supreme Court decisions on abortion are very important to them. As for whether Judge Samuel Alito's nomination should be confirmed, 34 percent say yes, 29 percent say no, and 37 percent are undecided.
-- A majority of Californians (58 percent) and likely voters (53 percent) don't approve of how Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job, and most are no fans of the Legislature either.
-- Forty-six percent anticipate more bad than good financial times in 2006, and 60 percent say the state is going in the wrong direction.
The survey's focus on population is not an abstract concern: Demographers predict that the state's population is likely to increase from 37 million now to 46 million by 2025 – and the majority of those surveyed (55 percent) say this is a „bad thing.“
And yet: Thirty-six percent of Californians say the ideal number of children to have is three or more.
In addition, 72 percent believe teen pregnancy rates have increased or remained the same – even though they actually have decreased across the state.
Are people really this confused and contradictory?
„There's a lot of work to be done,“ said survey director Mark Baldassare. „People don't have a basic understanding about the dynamics driving growth these days.“
He was especially taken aback by the misplaced focus on immigration as a culprit in the swelling of the state.
„I was most surprised by the fact that most Californians don't fully appreciate the role of births in population growth,“ Baldassare said. „One other thing that struck me is the broad consensus for programs that promote birth control and sex education – support across racial and ethnic and regional and political categories to make birth control accessible and available.“
The single greatest contributor to the state's population increase is births to residents – almost half in recent years have been to immigrant women. There have been about 500,000 births annually in California in the 2000s, and the rate is projected to stay at that level, or rise above it, for the next decade.
The survey, which has a 2 percent sampling error and was conducted in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese, contained other unexpected tidbits as well.
For example, 71 percent of respondents do not want a reversal of Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 U.S. Supreme Court decision legalizing abortion. Even 52 percent of respondents who described themselves as evangelical Christians want it to stick around.
„Most people do not want to change the basic laws and structures of the land,“ Baldassare said.
Those who know something about sex or young people, or both, have their own thoughts on how to remedy overpopulation.
„Break the egg!“ said Jane Tollini, who produced the most prolific captive penguin colony in the world during her years at the San Francisco Zoo. „Make an omelet.“
When she realized the subject was people rather than seabirds, Tollini said, „I don't know – cold showers?“
Paul Nathan, longtime master of ceremonies for San Francisco's annual Exotic Erotic Ball, has a different idea for solving the population crisis.
„Raise our standards for who we sleep with,“ he said.
Nathan added that he's convinced that sex education works.
„We've already seen a huge change in society locally with condom use,“ he said. "When they teach that if you don't use condoms you're going to die, or you'll get pregnant and your life will be ruined, it is effective.
„If you don't teach that, kids can't make an informed decision. Kids are smart – they're smart, but they're ignorant.“
Mishwa Lee, a teacher at a continuation school in San Francisco's Bayview-Hunters Point, also is a fan of sex education.
by Patricia Yollin, Chronicle Staff Writer
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